Director General’s Conclusions

The challenge is now one of delivery. Global energy demand is rising as populations grow and economies electrify, while emissions must fall sharply. Meeting both objectives will require a major expansion of clean, reliable energy, with nuclear power playing a significant part.

At COP28 in 2023, 25 countries committed to work towards tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050. That number has since risen to 38. The priority now is to turn political ambition into programmes, projects, operating capacity and ultimately energy delivered to society

Tripling will require action across the whole nuclear system: preserving the existing fleet, completing reactors already under construction, accelerating deployment of proven large reactors, bringing SMRs and advanced reactors into commercial operation, and enabling new countries to establish successful nuclear programmes.

Build the deployment pipeline now

The required increase in construction is substantial. In recent years, annual nuclear additions have typically been below 10 GWe. Even at the historic peak in the 1980s, annual additions only briefly exceeded 30 GWe. Delivering the tripling ambition will eventually require annual additions well above those historic levels.

That scale of deployment cannot be created quickly.

Reactors already under construction and mature projects will provide much of the growth this decade. Capacity commissioned in the 2030s will depend increasingly on decisions being taken now on project development, financing, licensing, manufacturing and workforce. Deployment in the 2040s will need to build on repeat projects, standardised designs, mature supply chains and experienced delivery organisations.

Governments and industry therefore need to act before capacity is urgently required. Countries expecting to need nuclear capacity in the 2030s and 2040s should establish programmes, sites, regulatory resources and financing arrangements now.

This matters because nuclear expansion will take place alongside rapidly increasing electricity demand from electrification, data centres, cooling, desalination, hydrogen and industrial decarbonisation. New nuclear capacity will be needed both to replace unabated fossil generation and to help meet growth in total low-carbon electricity demand. It can also provide reliable heat for sectors that are difficult to decarbonise through electricity alone.

Protect and make full use of the existing fleet

The first priority should be to make full use of the nuclear capacity already available.

Existing reactors provide proven low-carbon generation together with valuable infrastructure: established sites, transmission connections, skilled workforces, experienced operating organisations and reliable supply chains. Where continued operation can meet regulatory requirements, there is a strong case for avoiding premature closures.

Governments, operators and regulators should therefore:

• enable long-term operation where plants can continue to meet safety requirements;
• pursue economically and technically justified power uprates;
• improve plant performance and reduce avoidable outages;
• assess the potential to restart suitable reactors that have closed prematurely; and
• prioritise timely completion and commissioning of reactors already under construction.

Every gigawatt retained, uprated, restarted or completed reduces the amount of entirely new capacity that must subsequently be developed.

Move proven designs into repeat deployment

Preserving the existing fleet will not be enough. Tripling will require sustained new construction.

Large reactors based on proven designs are likely to provide most of the additional nuclear capacity over the near and medium term. Their contribution will be greatest where we move away from isolated projects and establish repeat-build programmes that capture experience from one unit to the next.

Governments, utilities, project developers, or large energy users should therefore identify credible sequences of projects rather than treating each reactor as a separate decision. Vendors should standardise designs and avoid unnecessary project-specific changes. Supply chains need sufficient visibility of future orders to justify investment in manufacturing capacity and workforce.

SMRs and other advanced technologies can broaden the contribution of nuclear energy. They may provide new options for smaller grids, industrial facilities, remote locations and heat applications. Their contribution will depend on how quickly first projects can be converted into repeat commercial deployment.

The issue is not whether countries should choose large reactors or SMRs. The priority is to deploy technologies suited to national needs and to do so in ways that support repeatability, standardisation and learning.

Put workable delivery models in place

There is no single model for nuclear deployment. Countries have different resource endowments, electricity markets, institutions, industrial capabilities and financing systems.

What matters is whether each country has a framework capable of supporting investment over the full life of a nuclear project.

In centrally coordinated systems, governments and state-owned utilities can integrate nuclear development with long-term electricity planning, grid investment and industrial strategy. In competitive markets, additional arrangements may be needed to provide predictable long-term revenues and to recognise the wider value of firm low-carbon generation, system stability and energy security.

Financing arrangements should allocate risks to the parties best able to manage them. Placing risks on investors or consumers who cannot control them increases financing costs and can undermine projects.

Countries should therefore establish credible revenue, financing and risk-allocation frameworks before projects reach final investment decisions.

Strengthen the global supply chain

Tripling nuclear capacity will require an industrial base capable of supporting much higher and more sustained construction rates.

Governments and industry should provide enough visibility of future project pipelines to support investment in:

• component manufacturing;
• construction capacity;
• uranium exploration, mining, conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication;
• specialist engineering;
• transport and logistics; and
• nuclear-qualified suppliers.

International supply chains will remain essential. New entrant countries should make use of experienced international vendors and operators rather than attempting to recreate every capability domestically from the outset.

Countries planning sustained programmes should also identify where domestic capability can reduce delivery risk and create long-term economic value. The objective should be resilient international supply chains combined with realistic national localisation.

Expand the workforce before shortages become a constraint

A larger nuclear programme will require more people across almost every part of the sector.

Governments, industry and educational institutions should quantify future workforce needs and expand training before construction activity accelerates. Particular attention is needed for occupations where experience takes years to develop, including regulators, nuclear safety specialists, project managers, operators and nuclear-qualified construction personnel.

Countries restarting nuclear construction after long gaps should not assume that an existing operating fleet automatically provides the skills needed for major new-build programmes.

International mobility, common training standards and transfer of experience between mature and emerging programmes can help, but they cannot replace sustained investment in national skills.

Equip regulators for expansion

Regulatory capacity must grow alongside industry capacity.

Faster deployment does not require lower safety standards. It requires regulators with sufficient people, expertise and predictable processes to assess projects efficiently.

Governments should ensure that regulators have the resources needed to deal simultaneously with existing fleet oversight, lifetime extensions, new reactors and emerging technologies.

Regulators should also increase international cooperation, particularly for designs being deployed in several countries. Greater use of previous regulatory assessments, while retaining national responsibility for safety decisions, can reduce unnecessary duplication and help successful designs move more efficiently between markets.

Help new nuclear countries move from ambition to projects

A growing number of countries are considering or developing their first nuclear power programmes. Their successful entry will be important if nuclear deployment is to expand geographically as well as increase in established markets.

These countries need to move systematically from political commitment to project development.

That means establishing:

• durable national policy;
• competent implementing organisations;
• independent regulatory capability;
• realistic sites and technology options;
• financing and ownership arrangements;
• fuel and waste strategies; and
• credible schedules.

International organisations, experienced nuclear countries and industry should support these programmes through practical transfer of knowledge, regulatory cooperation, training and partnership.

The aim should be to help new entrants benefit from existing experience rather than requiring each country to recreate the same institutions, processes and lessons independently.

Resolve fuel and waste requirements as programmes expand

Fuel security and waste management need to be planned at the same scale as reactor deployment.

Rapid expansion of nuclear capacity will require corresponding increases in uranium mining, conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication. Advanced reactor programmes may require new fuel types and manufacturing capability.

Governments and industry should identify these requirements early enough for capacity to be developed ahead of reactor demand.

The same applies to spent fuel and radioactive waste. Existing storage arrangements provide time, but countries planning substantial fleet expansion should establish credible long-term used fuel and waste management strategies and make measurable progress towards disposal solutions.

Move from individual projects to sustained programmes

The WNOR assessments show a consistent pattern: nuclear capacity is more likely to grow where countries maintain sustained programmes rather than rely on isolated projects.

Stable programmes allow experience to accumulate. They support investment in people and manufacturing. They make it possible to repeat designs, retain delivery organisations and give governments, regulators, investors and suppliers confidence that capability developed for one project will be needed again.

The priority for the coming decade should therefore be to convert national ambitions into credible pipelines of projects.

Industry needs to improve project execution, standardisation and productivity. Governments need to provide durable policy, financing and market frameworks. Regulators need sufficient resources to handle growing workloads efficiently. Financial institutions need models that reflect the long operating lives and system value of nuclear assets. Educational institutions need to expand the workforce, and local communities need to see clear benefits from hosting projects.

Tripling nuclear capacity by 2050 remains achievable, but it will depend on decisions being taken well before the capacity is needed.

The immediate priorities are clear: preserve the existing fleet, complete projects already under way, commit to the next projects, establish repeat programmes, and invest in the institutions, people and supply chains needed to sustain deployment at scale.

Dr Sama Bilbao y León
Director General, World Nuclear Association
September 2026