Global outlook for nuclear capacity goals
Projection of nuclear capacity in 2050
Global operable nuclear capacity is projected to reach 1457 GWe by 2050 if: i) reactors currently operable operate up to a maximum of 80 years, unless stated to have a shorter period of operation; ii) reactors classified as under construction, planned, or proposed as of 1 August 2026 enter operation by 2050; and iii) any additional capacity required to meet national nuclear capacity targets also enters operation.
Capacities in this forward-looking section refer to the gross capacity of a nuclear plant - the maximum electrical output generated by the nuclear plant’s generator, enabling easier comparisons between existing and future reactors. The Global Performance chapter reports the net capacity of operable reactors, the electrical output available for supply to the grid after subtracting the plant’s own electricity consumption.
There have been some small changes in the capacities in each of these categories since the 2025 projections used in the previous edition of the World Nuclear Outlook Report.
There are reductions in the capacities estimated for longer term and less committed categories (Proposed; Potential), and an increase in more certain, near-term capacity (Planned; Under construction).
This trajectory would be expected if plans and proposals for new reactors were advancing to meet government goals and the rate of new construction were accelerating. However, whether these are the reasons for the changes observed will only become clear if the trends are continued in future reports.
The 60-year operation capacity has fallen and the 80-year operation capacity has risen because these category definitions have changed. In the previous report, any reactor approved to operate for more than 60 years was included in the 80-year category. This year, only those reactors that will have operated for less than 60 years are included in the 60-year operation category, regardless of whether they have received approval to operate for longer.
Global capacity projections 2026-2050
The figure below shows projected global reactor capacity by category, based on the combined capacity trajectories for each country.
Of the 423 GWe (gross) of nuclear capacity currently in operation, 401 GWe is projected to remain in operation in 2050. This comprises 171 GWe from reactors that would have operated for less than 60 years and 230 GWe from reactors operating for between 60 and 80 years. The remaining 19 GWe largely reflects reactors expected to close before 2050 because of national policies, such as in Spain, or technical factors, such as the UK’s AGR reactors. It also includes a small number of reactors that would exceed 80 years of operation by 2050. These are assumed to have closed for the purposes of this report, although operation beyond 80 years cannot be ruled out.
Growth in nuclear capacity to 2030 is expected to come primarily from reactors currently under construction, adding 54 GWe by 2030. A further 28 GWe of capacity now under construction is expected to enter operation by 2035.
Planned reactors, defined as those usually expected to enter operation within 15 years, are projected to add 106 GWe by 2041 and a further 8 GWe by 2050.
Proposed reactors are projected to add 289 GWe by 2050, with more than half of this capacity entering operation between 2041 and 2050. A further 13 GWe is attributed to the Potential category. Beyond these identified projects, an additional 559 GWe would be required to meet stated government goals and targets.
Regional capacity projections
Of the projected total global nuclear capacity of 1457 GWe in 2050, 1303 GWe is in countries where nuclear reactors already operate. This capacity alone would be sufficient to meet the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy capacity goal, if the targets in these countries are met.
Five countries dominate the capacity: China, France, India, Russia and the USA, with a combined 986 GWe of nuclear capacity in 2050.
New entrant countries, including those with their first reactors under construction in 2025, are projected to reach a combined nuclear capacity of 154 GWe by 2050.
Analysis
The first edition of the World Nuclear Outlook Report concluded that national ambitions for future nuclear capacity, if delivered, would be sufficient to exceed the global goal of tripling nuclear capacity by 2050 from 2020 levels. This goal was first agreed at COP28 in Dubai in 2023 and has now been endorsed by 38 countries.
The second edition confirms this conclusion. Meeting current national goals would result in 1457 GWe of nuclear capacity operating in 2050, very close to the 1446 GWe projected in the first edition. Although less than a year has passed since the first report was published, there are some indications that nuclear development plans are becoming more concrete. Capacity associated with projects that are under construction or categorized as Planned has increased, while less certain and longer term Proposed and Potential capacity has decreased.
Nevertheless, more than 550 GWe of the capacity required to meet national goals is not yet associated with projects classified as under construction, planned or proposed. In addition, not every planned or proposed project can be assumed to result in an operating reactor, and some existing reactors may not continue to operate to 2050.
The next chapter therefore assesses how well-prepared countries are to deliver their stated ambitions and the extent to which their nuclear capacity goals are likely to be achieved.
New entrant countries, including those with their first reactors under construction in 2025, are projected to reach a combined nuclear capacity of 154 GWe by 2050.